Compelling stats-driven storylines for day one of the 16th FINA World Swimming Championships taking place on 13 December.
Women’s 400m freestyle
Top qualifier Erika Fairweather from New Zealand may win a medal for his country for the second time in this event after Lauren Boyle clinched the bronze medal in 2012.
As title-holder Li Bingjie of China, who had also set a new world record (3:51.30) this October in Beijing at the Chinese Nationals, did not start this event, the competition is wide open for the title.
Li could have become the first swimmer to retain her title in this event since Claudia Poll (CRC) had claimed back-to-back golds in 1995 and 1997. It may sound strange but in the last 25 years no one was able to achieve that feat, the following 12 editions saw 12 different champions. Now we can have a 13th one, in case USA’s Leah Smith won’t touch in first as she had already won this event in 2016.
Australia had two golds in this event, by Kylie Palmer in 2008 and Ariarne Titmus in 2018.
US swimmers bagged six titles in this event as the best effort by a nation – the very first gold went to the legendary Janet Evans back in 1993. As a comparison, her winning time was 4:05.18 some thirty years ago, which would rank her 16th in the entry list today.
So far, the eventual winner set a new WR at two previous editions: Poll in Rio 1997 and Ariarne Titmus (AUS) in Hangzhou 2018.
Women’s 200m IM
The entry list already offered a ‘Who’s Who’ of this event as it features all three Olympic medallists including champion Yui Ohashi (JPN), runner-up Alex Walsh (USA) and bronze medallist Kate Douglass (USA). Furthermore, title-holder Sydney Pickrem (CAN), the best female medal collector at this summer’s European Championships Marrit Steenbergen (NED, she had 7 medals in Rome) and backstroke world record holder Kaylee McKeown (AUS) also signed up for this event.
It can be a rematch between Pickrem and Douglass – a year ago Douglass clocked a better time in the heats than Pickrem’s winning effort in the final (2:04.24 v 2:04.29), but the American was unable to reach a similar speed in the final and had to settle for the bronze.
In case of a successful title defence, Pickrem may start building a new winning run after Hungary’s Katinka Hosszu’s three victories in a row in 2014-16-18.
So far, the gold in this event came with a new world record three times at the championships: at the first edition in 1993, by USA’s Allison Wagner, then in 2008, by Zimbabwe’s Kirsty Coventry, and in 2014, by Hosszu, whose 2:01.86 from Doha is still the best-ever effort. Anyone targeting that monstrous time faces a mount to climb.
Interestingly, since Wagner hit the wall first in 1993, no US swimmers were able to win this event.
Tight finishes have been part of the show in the short-course pool. A year ago Pickrem won by 0.17sec ahead of China’s Yiting Yu. In 2012, Shiwen Ye (CHN) beat Hosszu by 0.08sec, while the legendary rivalry of Yana Klochkova (UKR) and Martina Moravcova (SVK) was decided by 0.01sec in 2000. Indeed, Moravcova came second two more times and lost by 0.24 in 1995 and by 0.02 in 1997, before finally grabbing the title in 1999.
Men’s 200m IM
Making the classic 200-400 IM double was business as usual for Aussie Matthew Dunn (the current FINA Vice-President achieved it three times, in 1995, 1997, 1999). Also for Finland’s Jani Sievinen (2000) and for USA’s all-time medal chart leader Ryan Lochte (2006, 2008, 2010 – also made the triple by winning the 100m in 2008 and 2010). Then the doubles dried up before Japan’s Daiya Seto finally repeated the greats’ feat and won both the 200m and the 400m in Abu-Dhabi. Seto already had podium finishes in the 200m in 2012-14-16 (bronze, then silvers) before he could pip USA’s Carson Foster by 0.20sec a year ago.
Once Japan’s Kosuke Hagino denied Lochte for a record-breaking fifth straight title in 2014, the gold medal moved to Asia. Hagino’s stunning victory was followed by back-to-back wins by China’s Wang Shun in 2016 and 2018 (who went on to win the Olympics in Tokyo), and Seto brought back the title to Japan in 2021.
So far, only Lochte was able to win the world title while setting a new world record, and he did that three times (2006, 2008, 2012). His last effort from Istanbul (1:49.63) is still the best-ever time to beat – and up until today, only the great American was able to cover the distance inside 1:50min.
USA’s Shaine Casas came really close this October in Toronto, clocking 1:50.37, and now he is the second-best performer on the all-time ranks (and this is obviously the best entry time here in Melbourne). Besides him, Hagino, Seto and Greece’s European champion Andreas Vazaios could dip under 1:51 – and Casas, Seto and Vazaios are all in the race this evening.
Men’s 1500m Freestyle
Last year in Abu Dhabi, Germany’s Olympic champion marathon swimmer and 2019 long-course world champion of the 1500m, Florian Wellbrock won this event by setting a new world record (14:06.88). He was the first swimmer ever in the event’s history who achieved this feat (gold+WR). Wellbrock is bypassing this meet – last December having the final leg of the Marathon Swim World Series in Abu Dhabi was alluring for him, and he came first in the 10km race as well, before making some big splash in the pool as well.
With Wellbrock being away, it might be the time for Italian great Gregorio Paltrinieri to crown his exceptional season. So far in 2022, King Greg won the world title in the pool in Budapest while setting a new European record, and three days later he added the 10km gold as well. Then, at the Rome Europeans, he won the 800m, came second in the 1500m free, and grabbed two more golds in open water (5km, team). As for his short-course adventures, he had mixed fortunes at these Worlds in the 1500m, he came first in 2014 but had to settle for the silver in 2012, 2016 and 2018 (skipped Abu Dhabi 2021).
Wellbrock brought down Paltrinieri’s WR, set in 2015, he shaved off 1.18sec from the old mark.
At the beginning, the 60-lap race was an Aussie playing field, Daniel Kowalski won the first two editions, then Grant Hackett three of the following four. Russia’s Yuri Prilukov ruled the finals in three consecutive championships (2004-06-08), after that the great series came to an end as the last six titles went to six different swimmers.
This race won’t have heats and a final – swimmers have been placed in three heats based on their entry times and the fastest eight compete in the evening session. However, an absolute ranking will be made at the end of the three races, in principle, a gold medal-winning time can be achieved in the morning session.
Interestingly, the average age of the evening race is higher than usual in today’s finals. Five of the eight competitors are aged 26 or higher, with France’s Damien Joly being the eldest, aged 30.
Women’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay
A bit surprisingly, China lead the all-time ranks in this event with 5 titles (1993, 1997, 2002, 2010, 2018). Title-holder Canada claimed three golds so far, including two in the last three editions, while the US finished runners-up in 2016, 2018 and 2021 as well (won only twice, in 2004 and 2012).
Five world record-breaking team efforts have been witnessed in the history of the event so far. China did it twice, in 1993 and 1997, the Dutch bettered their WR in 2006, then the Netherlands went below 3:30 for the first time in 2008 and bettered this in Doha 2014 when they clocked 3:26.53, still the No. 1 effort to date.
Men’s 4x100m Freestyle Relay
Eight nations managed to win this relay at least once in the 15 editions, which shows that the outcome of this event is hardly predictable.
The United States, ruler of this event at the Olympics and at the long-course Worlds (in Budapest this June they claimed their 14th long-course title in 19 editions), had to wait until the 6th edition in 2002 to claim their first title – then they won 4 of the next 6, only to come first once in the last four championships. There will be no title defence as the Russians, winners in 2016 as well as runners-up in 2014 and 2018, haven’t been invited to Melbourne.
The world record was bettered by the winning team four times in the past: in 1993 (by Brazil), in 2000 (Sweden), in 2008 (USA) and finally in 2018 when the American quartet managed to beat the shiny WR from 2009 – in Hangzhou, four 45sec splits helped them to clock 3:03.03, which still stands as the global mark.