If the diving men’s events are normally more difficult to predict (namely concerning the gold medal), among women it has been pretty much China’s affair for the last 30 years. With three notable exceptions in 2000 and 2004, all diving titles have gone to the Asian powerhouse since 1988 in the individual events and since 2000 in synchronised finals.
3M SPRINGBOARD
In 3m springboard, Shi Tingmao and Wang Han are by far the best two Chinese representatives in the event, respectively winning gold and silver in the last two editions of the FINA World Championships (Budapest 2017 and Gwangju 2019). At almost 30 – she was born on August 31, 1991 – Shi is also the current Olympic champion in this event and has also earned nine medals (including eight gold) at World Championships’ level. She is one of the most successful Chinese divers after the phenomenon Guo Jingjing, the queen of springboard for many years. Team China has eight consecutive victories in the 3m event since 1988 and on five occasions also won the silver medal (the exceptions to the runner-up position were in 1992, 1996 and 2008, all by Russian athletes).
Behind the Chinese favourite duet, the best placed for the bronze medal is Jennifer Abel, from Canada. Third at the 2017 FINA Worlds, fourth in 2019 and also fourth at the 2016 Olympics, Abel is a very experienced diver, who collected an Olympic bronze medal in 2012 (in the 3m synchro) and 10 podium presences at world level.
Behind this leading trio, Esther Qin (AUS), sixth in Rio 2016 and in Gwangju 2019 is a solid bet for a top-8 classification. Grace Reid, from Great Britain, fourth at the 2017 Worlds, is most probably the best European “card”, while Sayaka Mikami (fifth in Gwangju, two years ago), will proudly represent her home country in the Tokyo Aquatics Centre.
10m platform
Going to the 10m platform, the Chinese supremacy is also notorious, but unlike the 3m, team China is putting all hopes in two very young divers: Chen Yuxi, current world champion, and completing 16 on September 11, and Quan Hongchan, 14, taking part in her first major event. China’s tradition in the higher board is quite consistent, with seven victories in the last nine editions, since 1984. The only time the gold didn’t go the Asian powerhouse was in 2000 (Laura Wilkinson, USA) and in 2004 (Chantelle Newbery, AUS). The Australian’s gold is in fact the last non-Chinese victory in a women’s Olympic diving event… 17 years ago!
However, unlike the 3m, the field in the platform is a bit more open (also taking into account the young age of the Chinese divers and their lack of experience at this level), and more countries have entered solid assets to fight for the top positions.
From Malaysia, we find veteran Pandelela Pamg and Jun Hoong Cheong. Pamg is a true national hero in her country, after winning a bronze medal in this event at the 2012 Olympics in London, and then getting silver in the 10m synchro final in Rio 2016. In the last two editions of the World Championships, she was perhaps not so strong (ninth in 2017 and fifth in 2019), but on an inspired evening Pamg can definitively be a contender for a medal in Tokyo. Cheong, world champion in 2017 in Budapest, is also capable of a pleasant surprise and has to be considered in the leading group of this final.
Meaghan Benfeito, from Canada, is definitively one of the most recognisable names in the world of diving and is currently the bronze Olympic medallist in this event. The 32-year-old Canadian has two additional bronze medals at the Games’ level, both in 10m synchro (2012 and 2016). In Budapest 2017, she was eighth, slightly improving in Gwangju 2019 (sixth).
Also close from the podium area is Melissa Wu, from Australia, fourth two years ago in Korea and twice fifth in Hungary and Rio 2016 Olympics. The reigning world bronze medallist is Delaney Schnell (USA), surely one of the most solid hopes for the North Americans to earn medals in the diving competition. Finally, Iuliia Timoshinina (ROC*) has also potential to challenge the top divers, having amassed 17 medals at recent Diving World Series meets.
3m synchro
With Shi and Wang also entered in the 3m synchro, only a huge hiccup could prevent a Chinese victory in this event, won by the Asian team since 2004 – in Sydney 2000, the first 3m synchro event in Olympic history was won by Russia. Shi and Wang are the current world champions and Shi has also the Olympic gold medal from Rio 2016, where she partnered with another Chinese legend, Wu Minxia.
As with the individual event, Canada seems in a good position to challenge the Chinese representatives, with Abel and Melissa Citrini-Beaulieu certainly motivated to confirm their 2019 (and 2017) world silver medal in the event. For Abel it will be also the opportunity to do better than in Rio 2016, where she finished fourth (at the time with Pamela Ware). From Great Britain, Reid and Katherine Torrance dive together for some years now and will naturally aim at improving their fifth place at both the 2017 and 2019 FINA World Championships. The retirement of Tania Cagnotto (ITA) and the non-selection of Paola Espinosa (MEX) will perhaps reduce the chances of an Italian podium (as in Rio 2016 – silver) or Mexican medal (as in Gwangju 2019 – bronze).
10m synchro
Finally, in the 10m synchro final, China – unbeaten in all five Olympic editions with this event on the programme -, reappears with Chen, this time accompanied by Zhang Jiaqi (the latter was 2019 world champion, with Lu Wei). Compared to the 3m synchro final, China is also the team to beat, but some other powerful duets will be looking to take advantage of a possible Chinese mistake.
In theory, the leaders of this group are Malaysia’s Pamg and Mun Yee Leong, the silver medallists at the 2019 Worlds in Gwangju (Pamg was also bronze medallist in 2017, with Cheong, after getting the silver at the Olympic arena, in Rio 2016). Benfeito will partner with Caeli McKay to maximise the chances for Canada of getting a medal in this event – the pair was fourth in Gwangju 2019 and Budapest 2017. Benfeito collected a bronze in Rio 2016, at the time diving with Roseline Filion. Third in 2019, the team of USA has changed the divers entered for Tokyo, replacing Samantha Bromberg and Katrina Young by Jessica Parratto and Schnell. Lois Toulson/Eden Cheng, from Great Britain, will try to enter in the fight for the top positions, after a sixth place at the 2019 Worlds, a seventh spot in 2017 (Toulson/Tonia Couch) and a fifth position in Rio 2016 (Toulson/Couch).
*ROC – Russian Olympic Committee